The International Monetary Fund has lowered its forecast for Türkiye’s economic growth this year to 2.7% from 2.9%, while leaving its 2027 projection unchanged at 3.6%, according to its October World Economic Outlook released on Oct. 13.
The report was published during the annual meetings of the IMF and the World Bank in Bangkok. The fund’s previous projections for Türkiye were issued in July.
Inflation and external balance
The IMF expects Türkiye’s consumer prices to rise by an average of 31.2% in 2026 and 26.5% in 2027. On a year-end basis, it projects inflation of 29.9% at the end of this year and 23.7% at the end of next year.
The fund sees the current account deficit at 2.9% of gross domestic product in 2026, narrowing to 2.4% in 2027. It forecasts the unemployment rate at 8.2% this year and 8.3% next year.
Taken together, the figures point to slower growth this year than the fund had expected in July, with a recovery in 2027 and a gradual easing of inflation over the two-year horizon.
Global outlook improves slightly
In contrast to its cut for Türkiye, the IMF raised its 2026 forecast for world growth to 3.1% from 3%, and kept its 2027 estimate at 3.4%. It expects global inflation of 4.7% this year, easing to 4.1% next year.
The fund said growth was becoming increasingly uneven, with economies benefiting from investment in artificial intelligence outperforming many energy importers and lower-income countries.
Among the main risks, it listed a prolonged or escalating conflict in the Middle East that could keep energy and food prices elevated, rising government borrowing costs and renewed trade tensions.
The IMF urged governments to rebuild fiscal buffers and to keep any support for households facing higher food and energy bills temporary and targeted.
The fund’s downgrade for Türkiye was modest, at 0.2 percentage point, and the IMF still expects the Turkish economy to pick up speed next year.
Sources
Photo: APK / CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
