Prices received by farmers in Türkiye fell 1.99% in September from the previous month, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) said on Oct. 14, pulling annual agricultural producer inflation down to 12.93%.
The agricultural producer price index (Tarım-ÜFE) tracks the prices that farmers, foresters and fishers get for their output at the first point of sale, before transport, processing and retail margins are added. It is closely watched as a leading indicator for food prices in shops.
The September reading marks a sharp slowdown from August, when annual agricultural producer inflation stood at 21.91% and the index fell 0.93% on the month. Since December 2025, farm-gate prices have risen 7.03%, while the 12-month average increase stood at 30.64%.
Fruit and fish drive the decline
All three main sectors posted monthly decreases. Prices for agricultural and hunting products fell 1.66%, forestry products dropped 2.75%, and fish and other fishing products slid 9.93%.
Among the main product groups, perennial crops such as fruit and nuts showed the steepest fall, with prices down 8.37% on the month and 19.30% lower than a year earlier. Tropical and subtropical fruits recorded the largest monthly decline of any subgroup, at 14.69%.
Not every category eased. Annual crops edged up 0.03% in September but were 33.87% more expensive than a year earlier. Live animals and animal products rose 1.00% on the month and 34.19% on the year. The biggest annual jump came in vegetables, melons and watermelons, roots and tubers, where producer prices were up 61.07%.
What it means for food inflation
The data offer some relief for policymakers trying to bring down inflation, which remains high by international standards. Annual consumer price inflation in Türkiye eased to 29.73% in September, according to TÜİK figures released on Oct. 5, with food one of the most heavily weighted items in the household basket.
A softer trend at the farm gate can feed through to supermarket shelves with a lag, although retail food prices also reflect energy, transport, packaging and labor costs, which have been under pressure this year. The sharp contrast between falling fruit prices and steep annual increases for vegetables and livestock products also suggests that the picture for consumers will vary widely by product.
The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB), which has kept its policy rate at 37%, is due to announce its next interest rate decision on Oct. 22. Most economists surveyed ahead of the meeting expect a cut, after September consumer inflation came in below forecasts.
Sources
- Tarım ÜFE Eylül’de aylık bazda yüzde 1,99 azaldı (Capital)
- Tarım Ürünleri Üretici Fiyat Endeksi, Eylül 2026 (Ayancık Gazetesi/BHA)
- Tarım ürünleri üretici fiyat endeksi ağustosta yıllık yüzde 21,91 arttı (Forbes Türkiye)
Photo: Miomir Magdevski / CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
