Households in Türkiye will not see higher natural gas prices in October or November, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar has said. Economists, however, expect gas and electricity tariffs to rise in the new year, and a lower cap on subsidised electricity in 2027 could push up bills for heavy users.
In a television interview reported by Sözcü and Bloomberg HT, Bayraktar said the government had no plan "for now" to change gas prices in those two months. He added that the ministry was watching market developments and the budget.
Experts point to 2027
The Cumhuriyet newspaper reported on Thursday that experts expect gas and electricity price rises in the new year at or close to the government’s 21% inflation target for 2027. The paper did not name the experts.
State-run gas importer BOTAŞ sells gas to households below cost, and experts expect it to close 2026 with a loss, the report said. The government has raised BOTAŞ’s capital from 200 billion lira to 350 billion lira. The Dutch TTF benchmark for European gas has climbed above $1 per cubic metre. Türkiye uses about 55-60 billion cubic metres of gas a year, most of it imported.
The electricity cap that matters for villas
For foreign residents, the more immediate issue may be the annual limit on subsidised household electricity. Türkiye removed its heaviest users from the support scheme in 2025. The threshold was 5,000 kilowatt-hours (kWh) a year in 2025 and fell to 4,000 kWh in 2026, about 333 kWh a month on average.
Bayraktar said a new limit will be set for 2027 and could fall "a bit further" below 4,000 kWh.
Under the current rules, households that go over the limit are moved for the whole following year to the more expensive "last resort" supply tariff (son kaynak tarifesi), based on their previous year’s consumption. They return to the normal tariff once their annual use falls below the new threshold. When the 4,000 kWh rule was introduced, about 2.5 million of Türkiye’s 43 million household subscribers were expected to be affected, according to Anadolu Agency reporting.
Large holiday homes with air conditioning, electric heating, pool pumps or electric-car charging can pass 4,000 kWh a year easily. Owners on the Mediterranean and Aegean coasts may want to check their annual consumption on their bills or with their electricity supplier before the 2027 limit is announced.
Energy costs are one of the fastest-moving items in the cost of living in Türkiye. Annual inflation is running at about 29%, as the trade minister noted when discussing house prices. S&P Global has said faster disinflation could lead to a credit rating upgrade.
Sources
- Doğalgazda zam ihtimali gündemde: 2027 için yüzde 21’lik senaryo (Cumhuriyet)
- Bakan Bayraktar açıkladı: Doğalgaza zam gelecek mi? (Sözcü)
- Bakan Bayraktar’dan doğalgazda zam ve elektrikte limit açıklaması (Bloomberg HT / Foreks)
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