Economists and financial professionals polled by Türkiye’s central bank expect annual consumer inflation to end 2026 at 29.63%, almost unchanged from 29.61% a month earlier, according to the bank’s October Survey of Market Participants released on Friday.
The survey, which the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB) publishes every month, is closely watched as a gauge of whether its disinflation programme is gaining credibility.
Longer-term outlook improves slightly
Expectations for inflation 12 months ahead edged up to 23.89% from 23.70%, while the 24-month expectation fell to 17.94% from 18.32%. The decline in the two-year figure suggests respondents still see prices slowing markedly over the medium term, even though near-term forecasts have barely moved.
Annual inflation stood at 29.73% in September, below expectations, as we reported in our September inflation story.
Rate cut expected next week
Participants expect the bank to lower its key one-week repo rate to 36% at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Oct. 22, down from 37%, and see the rate at 36% at the end of the month. The bank’s chief Fatih Karahan has said the bank will keep policy tight, as covered in our report on his Bangkok remarks. Our preview of the Oct. 22 decision explains what is at stake.
On the currency, respondents see the US dollar at 51.55 lira at the end of the year, little changed from 51.57 in September’s survey, and at 59.26 lira in 12 months, up from 58.60.
Growth expectations were trimmed slightly. Participants now see the Turkish economy expanding 2.9% in 2026, down from 3.0%, while the 2027 forecast was unchanged at 3.9%.
What it means for residents
For foreigners living in Türkiye, the figures point to a further year of high, though slowing, price increases. Rents, utilities and food are likely to keep rising faster than in most European economies, while a gradually weakening lira continues to soften the impact for those earning in foreign currency. Our cost of living in Turkey guide breaks down typical monthly expenses.
Sources
- TCMB Ekim 2026 Anketi: Enflasyon beklentilerinde iyileşme sinyali (Sabah)
- Borsada %4,44’lük haftalık düşüş! (Türkiye Gazetesi)
Photo: Gargarapalvin / CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons
