Economists expect Türkiye’s consumer prices to have risen by 2.20% in October, which would bring annual inflation down slightly to 29.28% from 29.73% in September, according to the monthly inflation expectations survey of AA Finans, the economic news service of the state-run Anadolu Agency (AA). The results were published on Wednesday and also carried by A Haber and Forbes Türkiye.
The Turkish Statistical Institute (TÜİK) will publish the official October consumer price index (CPI) on Tuesday, 3 November, AA said.
Forecasts range from 1.25% to 2.70%
Twenty-one economists took part in the survey. Their forecasts for the monthly rise in consumer prices in October ranged from 1.25% to 2.70%, with an average of 2.20%.
That would be a faster monthly rise than in September, when consumer prices increased by 1.84% according to TÜİK. Even so, the survey’s average forecast for annual inflation in October is 29.28%, slightly below September’s rate.
For the end of 2026, the economists’ average expectation for annual inflation is 29.64%, almost unchanged from 29.66% in the September survey.
How earlier forecasts compared
AA’s record of this year’s surveys shows that the economists’ monthly forecasts have sometimes missed in both directions. In September they expected 2.18% and the actual figure was 1.84%. In April the survey average was 3.19%, while TÜİK reported 4.18%. In March the expectation was 2.40% against an outcome of 1.94%. From May to August the forecasts were within about a tenth of a percentage point of the official figures.
The year-end expectation in the survey has risen over the year, from 23.73% in January to around 29.6% in recent months. The Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye’s (CBRT) own October survey of market participants put year-end inflation at a similar level, 29.63%, as covered in our report on the CBRT October survey.
For residents
Foreign residents and visitors budgeting in lira can compare the figures with our cost of living guide.
Sources
- AA Finans’ın ekim ayı Enflasyon Beklenti Anketi sonuçlandı (Anadolu Ajansı)
- AA Finans anketinde ekonomistlerin ekim ayı enflasyon beklentisi yüzde 2,20 oldu (AA via Son Dakika)
- Enflasyonda yeni tablo: 21 ekonomistten dikkat çeken ekim ayı ve yıl sonu tahmini (A Haber)
- Ekim ayı enflasyon beklentileri belli oldu (Forbes Türkiye)
Photo: Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey / Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
