Households and companies in Türkiye expect slightly lower inflation over the coming year than they did a month ago, while professional forecasters nudged their projections up, according to the central bank’s October sectoral inflation expectations data published on Friday.
The survey, released by the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye (TCMB), asks three groups what annual inflation they expect 12 months from now. Households put the figure at 43.75%, down 1.85 percentage points from September. Expectations in the real sector – businesses in manufacturing and other industries – fell 0.70 points to 31.80%. Market participants, mainly economists and financial professionals, raised their forecast by 0.19 points to 23.89%, Anadolu Agency reported.
The share of households who expect prices to rise more slowly over the next year edged up by 0.31 points to 16.56%.
A wide gap between households and economists
The figures highlight a familiar pattern in Türkiye: ordinary consumers expect much higher inflation than economists do. Households’ 43.75% is well above the official annual rate of 29.73% recorded by the statistics office TÜİK in September, and almost 20 points above the market forecast.
Central bankers watch these numbers closely because expectations feed into wage demands, rent negotiations and price-setting. Persistently high household expectations make it harder to bring inflation down, as people try to protect themselves by buying early, choosing foreign currency or gold, or asking for larger pay rises.
The data come a day after the TCMB cut its policy rate by one percentage point to 36%. Governor Fatih Karahan has repeatedly said the bank will keep a tight policy stance until disinflation is firmly established. The bank’s separate survey of market participants already pointed to year-end inflation of 29.63%.
What it means for foreign residents
For foreigners living in Türkiye, the gap matters in day-to-day life. Landlords and shopkeepers tend to set prices with household-style expectations in mind rather than official forecasts, which is one reason why rents and services often rise faster than the headline rate. Rents in Istanbul, for example, were up around 35% on the year in September, according to the latest house price and rent data.
Tenants renewing a lease should remember that annual rent increases on residential contracts are linked to the 12-month average of consumer price inflation. For a broader picture of household budgets, see our guide to the cost of living in Türkiye in 2026.
Sources
- Yıllık enflasyon beklentisi hanehalkı ve reel sektör için geriledi (Anadolu Ajansı)
- TÜİK eylül enflasyonunu açıkladı (Forbes Türkiye)
Photo: Nedret Binici / Unsplash License, via Unsplash
